So far, Libya is just another state that has been struck by the powerful movements in the Islamic region. There are more than three weeks since the beginning of the violent unrest in Libya. As I have stated at the beginning of these events (the military intervention in the form of a resolution of the United Nations is inevitable). It is my opinion that we are witnessing a civil war, in an Islamic state from the Northern part of Africa. Without any doubt, the stake of this war is the control over the Libya’s oil reserves (Libya has the largest oil reserves in the African continent).
Shortly after the unfortunate events that occurred in the Islamic world, France quickly tried to interfere (it was the first state that recognized the rebel forces from Benghazi), firstly by helping the rebels and then by creating a coalition, thus preparing for a military intervention, under the United Nations flag. Even though there are two balanced sides regarding the military interventions in Libya, France still wanted to make sure it has a strong position in “Libya’s release”. French air-forces were also the first that flew over the Libya’s air space and launched the first attacks on Gaddafi’s key military objectives. In spite of the great relations between France and Russia and of the fact that Russia agrees in all terms with China and Germany, one of the major objectors on the UN resolution regarding the military intervention (even though limitated at the air space – UN didn’t authorized yet a terrestrial invasion), this time, the high stake made France change the camp from its alliance with the United States and Great Britain, considering the fact that during the last events both France and Germany were at the same stage with Russia concerning the military interventions.
The stake is very high – the energy security for the upcoming years, but whether or not it will be secured depends on the management of this situation. Someone who leads a country for 42 years as its “president” will not give away his job easily. In the worst case, Gaddafi could take the example of Saddam Hussein who, after his resignation from Kuwait in 1991, ordered the burning of the oil wells. If this would occur, the environmental and economic impact would be devastating (Libya has a production of 2 million barrels of oil per day – production which fell by 25% from the beginning of the revolution). Another relevant example is the U.S. intervention in Iraq, in 2003; instead of helping the Iraqi economy, they have rather destroyed it. So it remains to be seen how the current events will develop and whether this intervention will have positive or negative consequences, from an economic viewpoint.
Last but not least, I wonder what countries will be in the same situation as Libya, given that the entire Arab World is strongly shaken by massive uprisings? Everything started from a relatively insignificant state such as Tunisia and has been spreading like a domino effect.
To conclude, I believe that the situation in Libya will degenerate; we may witness a major military intervention, and quite serious economic consequences. As for the rest of the Arab countries, this year will certainly bring other major movements of this kind and Saudi Arabia will probably be among them.
As I have declared at the beginning of these events, and soon after the end of the revolution in Egypt, “Israel remained alone among the jackals”, and it will be very interesting to see how the USA will handle this situation, as well as the coming ones in the region…